Market layer
Uses the stock and ETF universes to summarize where symbols sit in the current trend lifecycle, and which sectors, industries, ETF asset classes, and ETF focus groups are exhibiting the strongest trend and allocation opportunity.
Portfolio Analytics Guide
Trend Market Overview Guide
This guide explains how to read the Trend Market Overview dashboard: what each market-level metric means, how lifecycle and group leadership should be interpreted, how portfolio targets are produced, and how the rebalance layer turns model targets into implemented positions.
The dashboard is designed to separate four questions: What is trending?
Where is new capital attractive? Which securities are selected?
and What changes are ready to be implemented?
1. Dashboard Overview
The Trend Market Overview combines market breadth, trend lifecycle analysis, group leadership, security selection, portfolio weighting, and rebalance state in one page.
Portfolio layer
Uses correlation-aware selection and target-weight logic to create a model portfolio, then applies persistence and rebalance rules before changing the implemented portfolio.
The dashboard should not be read as a simple “buy the strongest thing” ranking. Trend strength,
allocation opportunity, portfolio selection, position size, and implementation are deliberately separate concepts.
2. Top-Level Metrics
The cards at the top of the dashboard provide a compact summary of opportunity, portfolio exposure, selection breadth, current directional conviction, and rebalance activity.
Eligible Breadth
Share of the universe currently eligible for new long capital
This is an absolute breadth measure. A higher percentage means more symbols across the stock and ETF universes currently satisfy the long-side opportunity criteria used by the allocation pipeline.
Model Invested
Target portfolio exposure
The model invested percentage is driven by eligible breadth. When breadth contracts, the model can automatically hold more cash rather than forcing the portfolio to remain fully invested.
Model Cash
Residual target capital
Model Cash is the complement of Model Invested. It represents capital that the current market opportunity set does not justify deploying.
Selected Holdings
Correlation-aware portfolio selections
The selection layer identifies a limited set of high-quality candidates while attempting to avoid excessive redundancy among highly correlated securities.
Bull / Bear
Strict current symbol direction
This card reflects the dashboard's composite trend_direction field. “Bull” corresponds to
symbols classified Up; “Bear” corresponds to symbols classified Down.
Symbols classified Mixed / Neutral are not included in either percentage.
Turnover
Current rebalance activity
Turnover measures the amount of portfolio weight that would change in the current implementation step. Persistence rules and resize bands can keep turnover below the raw model-to-model change.
Bull / Bear is not the same thing as the Market Lifecycle distribution. A symbol can be in an
“Early Bull” lifecycle stage while the stricter composite direction remains Mixed / Neutral.
3. Market Lifecycle
The lifecycle chart shows where stocks and ETFs are positioned within the broader trend-development process. It is intended to provide more detail than a simple bullish / bearish classification.
| Lifecycle | Interpretation | Typical allocation implication |
|---|---|---|
| Early Bull | An early constructive bullish state. | Potentially attractive, but earlier in confirmation than mature bullish stages. |
| Bull Migration | Bullish momentum is migrating through the trend momentum stack. | High-interest transition state for new long capital. |
| Mid Uptrend | A developed bullish trend with broader confirmation. | Often one of the strongest opportunity stages. |
| Strong Bull | A strong bullish trend state. | Constructive, but less early than migration / mid-trend phases. |
| Terminal Bull | Trend remains bullish but is approaching a mature or terminal region. | Reduced attractiveness for new allocation. |
| Extended Bull | Bullish momentum is extended. | Lower new-capital priority because extension risk is elevated. |
| Parabolic Bull | Extreme bullish extension. | Very low priority for initiating new positions despite strong trend. |
| Neutral / Other | No mapped bullish or bearish lifecycle state. | Generally not treated as a preferred long allocation state. |
| Early Bear → Parabolic Bear | Bearish lifecycle stages ranging from early deterioration to extreme downside extension. | Not eligible for long-side allocation under the current model. |
4. Group Leadership
Group Leadership separates trend strength from new-capital opportunity. The dashboard analyzes stock sectors and industries as well as ETF asset classes and focus groups.
Trend Score
Answers: How bullish or bearish is this group right now? It summarizes breadth, weighted participation, and trend momentum into a 0–100 score.
Allocation Opportunity
Answers: How attractive is this group for new long capital? It emphasizes lifecycle quality rather than simply rewarding the strongest or most extended trend.
A group can have a very high Trend Score but a lower Allocation Opportunity score if much of the group
has already migrated into terminal, extended, or parabolic lifecycle states.
5. Portfolio Allocation
The portfolio chart compares the current model target with the Phase 9 implemented portfolio. The model is intentionally allowed to hold substantial cash when the absolute opportunity set is narrow.
Model Target
The Phase 8 ideal target for the current run. Portfolio-level invested exposure is determined by absolute eligible breadth, while selected securities divide the invested sleeve according to the position-allocation logic.
Implemented
The Phase 9 portfolio after persistence and rebalance rules are applied. This is the state intended to reduce unnecessary turnover and avoid reacting immediately to every one-run selection change.
Market opportunity breadth
↓
Target invested %
↓
Selected portfolio
↓
Position weighting
↓
Phase 8 model targets
↓
Persistence + rebalance rules
↓
Phase 9 implemented portfolio
6. Current Portfolio Detail
The detail table combines the current Phase 8 target portfolio with Phase 9 implementation state. Filters allow you to isolate asset class, trend stage, rebalance action, or an individual ticker.
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Ticker | Security identifier. |
| Asset | Stock, ETF, or cash. |
| Trend Stage | Current mapped lifecycle stage for the security. |
| Group 1 | Primary group: stock sector or ETF asset class. |
| Group 2 | Secondary group: stock industry or ETF focus. |
| Opp Quality | Within-universe opportunity-quality percentile used by the selection layer. |
| Selection | Final correlation-aware security-selection score. |
| Target % | Current Phase 8 model target weight. |
| Implemented % | Current Phase 9 implemented weight. |
| Action | Current rebalance instruction or persistence state. |
| Trade Δ % | Portfolio-weight change associated with the current action. |
7. Rebalance Actions
The rebalance engine is designed to distinguish a model change from an immediately actionable portfolio change.
| Action | Meaning |
|---|---|
| BUY | A newly selected security has satisfied the entry-persistence requirement and is ready to enter. |
| PENDING_ENTRY | The model selected the security, but the required persistence has not yet been met. Implemented weight remains unchanged. |
| SELL | An existing holding has satisfied the exit-persistence requirement and is ready to be removed. |
| PENDING_EXIT | The security is no longer selected, but the exit-persistence requirement has not yet been met, so the existing position is temporarily retained. |
| INCREASE | The target weight has increased enough to exceed the configured resize thresholds. |
| DECREASE | The target weight has decreased enough to exceed the configured resize thresholds. |
| HOLD | No material implementation change is currently required. |
| MANDATORY_EXIT | An immediate exit condition has overridden normal persistence rules. |
| INCREASE_CASH / DEPLOY_CASH | The portfolio-level invested exposure has changed enough to trigger a cash allocation adjustment. |
8. Glossary
Short definitions for the terms used throughout the dashboard.
Trend Momentum
Trend Momentum: a rate-of-change measure applied to moving averages.
Lifecycle
A mapped state describing where a symbol currently sits in the development, maturity, or extension of a bullish or bearish trend.
Eligible Breadth
The percentage of the stock and ETF universe currently eligible for long-side new-capital allocation.
Opportunity Quality
A within-universe percentile used to rank the relative attractiveness of candidates before correlation-aware portfolio selection.
Selection Score
A security-selection score combining opportunity quality with diversification characteristics.
Target Weight
The current Phase 8 ideal portfolio weight.
Implemented Weight
The current Phase 9 portfolio weight after persistence and rebalance rules.